Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 05:42:42

AWUS01 KWNH 230542
FFGMPD
FLZ000-231000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0569
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
142 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...north-central Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230540Z - 231000Z

Summary...Another 3-4 hours of heavy rainfall will overspread the
discussion area, falling on areas that have already experienced
4-10 inches of rainfall over the past 24 hours.  Flash flooding
remains possible with this activity.

Discussion...Flash flood potential continues across the discussion
area tonight.  Recent trends indicate a forward-propagating linear
convective complex extending from near Tallahassee to near
Apalachicola currently.  In addition, deep convection extends
along an axis from near Ocala to about 200 miles west-southwest of
Ocala over open Gulf waters.  Both complexes are embedded in
west-southwesterly steering flow aloft that will allow for
continued areas of heavy rainfall to traverse the discussion area
from west-southwest to east-northeast over the next 3-4 hours
(through 09Z or so).  Trends suggest that another 2-3 inches of
rainfall are likely in these areas through that timeframe.=20
Meanwhile, grounds continue to be wet from prior rainfall and at
least localized impacts have been noted.  Flash flooding will
continue to be a possibility as the storms move through.

Models and CAMs suggest that convective activity may tend to
weaken some overnight as widespread overturning leads to low-level
stabilization of the currently unstable airmass.  This should lead
to lessening rain rates (and flash flood risk) sometime after 09Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5S7NKRne_ludr2ZcNrOKYv42mnmgWz8dfeG00C3oS4i0KZ5If8kASnow1f21VmIT-_Sr=
eNAZNJNowY2jZLcN8I_3vSw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...MLB...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30398373 30308285 29868212 29318181 28598180=20
            28298219 28328259 28668286 29198339 29628433=20
            29728495 30218444=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.