Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 01:47:09

AWUS01 KWNH 230147
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-230630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0567
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
946 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...Central NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230145Z - 230630Z

SUMMARY...Scattered strong t-storms that potentially train over an
impacted area may contend with flash flooding. Sensitive soils and
urban areas are most at-risk.

DISCUSSION...An 80 knot jet streak's diffluent right-entrance
region is oriented over the Mid-Atlantic tonight at the same time
a southerly surge in 850mb moisture intersects a stationary front.
This provides a good source of lift aloft, rich moisture, and a
trigger for thunderstorms to develop into the overnight hours. The
NAEFS shows the IVT over southern NC will top 750 kg/m/s, which is
above the 99th climatological percentile. Sufficient instability
is expected in the form of 500-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, PWs between
1.8-2.0", and 1000-500mb mean RH values up to 90%. RAP soundings
in portions of central NC tonight show warm cloud layers up to
13,000ft deep and effective bulk shear up to 30-45 knots. These
parameters favor storms not only being able to sustain themselves
for a few hours, but they are also likely to exhibit efficient
rainfall rates as high as 2"/hr.

RAP mesoanalysis does show that the mean 850-300mb wind speeds are
moving at a quick pace, to the tune of 30 knots in some cases.
Still, upshear Corfidi vectors are 10-15 knots and the mean flow
oriented parallel to the front does suggest the potential for
back-building thunderstorms. A similar storm-mode has occurred in
central GA and central SC, which did yield some rapid runoff
response on FLASH CREST max unit streamflow. Soils are most
sensitive from Fayetteville on north to Raleigh and points west.
AHPS 7-day rainfall totals between Charlotte and I-95 are are as
high as 400% of normal. It is in these areas with more saturated
soils, as well as more urbanized locations, that are most
susceptible to possible flash flooding tonight.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7pov4YGUQFWf_6EVAu0t7tDbu-R-qnDW8iZOOPzCEBWmo6OAbCnKMxYbVyqx075h0Bqw=
Q88vijWpiT90au5gRX6KLLE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...GSP...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36847829 36677790 35927805 35257855 34867938=20
            34838023 34918064 35338061 35678010 36107927=20
            36597863=20

=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.