Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Jun 23 2023 00:09:04

AWUS01 KWNH 230009
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-230530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0566
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
807 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...Central GA...Central SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 230010Z - 230530Z

SUMMARY...Backbuilding thunderstorms may cause additional flash
flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms beneath the diffluent right-entrance
region of an 80kt 250mb jet streak and along a stationary front
continue to produce locally heavy rainfall rates. Latets MRMS 1-hr
QPE shows some storms in SC have managed to produce close to 2" in
the past hour. These storms will remain in an environment that
contains MLCAPE of 1,000-1,500 J/kg and PWATs around 2". Mean
850-300mb winds remain oriented parallel to the front with
additional cells potentially forming due to a combination of the
front sparking additional storms and any outflows emanating away
from current convection. Some of these cells also have up to 30
knots worth of effective bulk vertical wind shear, helping to
sustain ongoing convection.

Latest RAP forecasts show a weak 500mb vort max is revolving
beneath the base of the 500mb trough over northern AL/GA, keeping
sufficient vertical ascent co-located above the surface front.
Latest HRRR shows additinal rounds of thunderstorms developing for
several more hours over areas that have received 400-600% of
normal rainfall over the past 7-days. Look for storms to remain a
possible flash flood threat this evening, especially in urbanized
communities and where soils are most sensitive.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9Y_B0WaiY2vLnd8jwM3kjmaa0UFIIxuOw0RUNZ-Jy7UC9vxwqKGZHEdUQgQZbkYWQAAt=
qspBjNeek0MrxYxH9E-uTgk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34808072 34238031 33408080 32598195 32258326=20
            32328385 32618402 33068338 33628251 34018188=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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