Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 23:31:38

AWUS01 KWNH 222331
FFGMPD
FLZ000-230530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0565
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
730 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...North Central FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 222330Z - 230530Z

SUMMARY...Additional heavy thunderstorms approaching from the
northeast Gulf of Mexico may lead to additional flash flooding
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to linger just off the Nature
Coast producing locally heavy rainfall rates just offshore that
MRMS 1-hr QPE suggests is approaching 2"/hr. Farther west, a
complex of strong thunderstorms off the central Gulf Coast is
associated with a 500mb disturbance slowly tracking east. Storms
off the LA coast, as well as new storms flaring up along the
convergence boundary west of Cedar Key, will take aim at northern
FL once again later this evening. The environment remains primed
for thunderstorms to contain excessive rainfall rates, highlighted
by PWATs just above 2" and MLCAPE above 2,000 J/kg. RAP soundings
showed low-mid level mean RH values around 85% and warm cloud
layers 13,000ft deep. There will be no shortage of moisture
transport as NAEFS shows IVT values tonight >500 kg/m/s, which
ranks above the 97.5 climatological percentile.

The past 24-hours were quite stormy along the FL Big Bend with
MRMS 24-hr QPE totals ranging between 4-10". MRMS soil saturation
shows shows 75-95% saturation in a large portion of the area,
making these particular locations more prone to flash flooding.
Brisk 25-30kt 850mb winds will continue throughout the evening and
PWs may approach 2.2" after midnight in northern FL. The HRRR
suggests a similar setup to last night may occur with training
convection producing 2-3"/hr rainfall rates from Cedar Key to as
far inland as Ocala. Given the expected Excessive Rainfall rates
over highly saturated soils, flash flooding is possible once again
tonight. Urbanized communities and low lying, poor drainage areas
are also susceptible to flash flooding tonight.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8ayI0pwJN0xD7LzGiKWRaWOZjRyXVTjO9Fz1sS3qlK-HpKfSZw0LfB-i4xJ1V9ufucQM=
LLBqJmLVvLNvgI69UmzB7cs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   29928247 29778211 29428197 28758217 28608272=20
            29048321 29668349 29838319=20

=3D =3D =3D
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