Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1212
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 22:01:48

ACUS11 KWNS 222201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222201=20
NMZ000-COZ000-222330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeastern NM and far southeastern CO

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359...

Valid 222201Z - 222330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for hail, damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes continue across WW359.

DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing within the upslope flow
regime across far northeastern NM and southeastern CO. As storms
have matured this afternoon, a few supercell structures have emerged
aided by 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Large hail will remain likely
with the strongest storms given the supercell mode, elongated
mid-level hodographs and moderate buoyancy. As these storms continue
eastward, they will cross a remnant outflow boundary from earlier
storms. Along and east of the boundary, strongly backed flow in the
lowest 1-2km is likely supporting greater low-level shear and some
additional ambient vorticity. A locally favorable corridor for a
couple of tornadoes may evolve this afternoon/evening.

...Lyons.. 06/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8IGuv8p6B_YBA5y5CzNLSA4cSy1o9X6x8UDYZ6ii74tHMuF9_t3W-1votfQylI3eJShzjOMj_=
DedcELqIFTjtaYKbsw$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37480480 37610409 37500357 36930303 36180310 35740308
            35430341 35290397 35280445 35350469 35440484 35670495
            36090512 37480480=20


=3D =3D =3D
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