Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1211
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 20:37:44

ACUS11 KWNS 222037
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222037=20
COZ000-WYZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1211
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into southeast Wyoming

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...

Valid 222037Z - 222200Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 358. Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) still appears to
be the main threat, though localized landspout/tornado potential
does exist, especially near and just east of the Denver metropolitan
area.

DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic and regional radar imagery depicts an
uptick in convective coverage and intensity across western portions
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358 (along the higher terrain of the
Rockies). Given steep lapse rates, the stronger storms will be
capable of producing severe hail (some 2+ inches in diameter).
Furthermore, a west-to-east oriented surface boundary has become
established across the DCVZ, just east of the Denver metropolitan
area. In addition to the presence of this boundary, ample surface
vertically oriented vorticity is also present. A rapidly
intensifying supercell (with a history of producing golf ball sized
hail) is approaching the Denver area and this vorticity rich
environment. The one mitigating factor for robust low-level rotation
may be relatively mediocre 0-3km CAPE. Nonetheless, it is not out of
the question to see a supercell or landspout tornado develop with
this supercell (or any other nearby storm that forms) at some point
this afternoon.

...Squitieri.. 06/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!42f66aJ-ua1mFplDQWvYJBrE-Oa9St5toM1jA6cIA7l9HEsNaO8QlLMmzZAEJNJi2h2M4T3fv=
ejXgNkTgVsWtr59XMk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39800384 39570402 39410452 39360502 39390535 40320554
            41670572 41980519 41720458 40950434 40370407 39800384=20


=3D =3D =3D
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