Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1210 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 19:51:44 ACUS11 KWNS 221951 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221951=20 OKZ000-TXZ000-222145- Mesoscale Discussion 1210 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023 Areas affected...the eastern Texas Panhandle and western/southern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 221951Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A persistent cluster of thunderstorms could still further intensify and organize, posing increasing potential for strong surface gusts across the eastern Texas Panhandle through western/southwestern Oklahoma late this afternoon. Although it is not yet clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, due to lingering uncertainties, trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection (around 700 mb), focused within the thermal gradient along the periphery of warm and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, has supported persistent convective development within an evolving cluster across the Oklahoma into Texas Panhandle vicinity. Based on MRMS data, stronger cells have been occasionally producing severe hail. More recently stronger outflow surface gusts have been observed near and southwest of Perryton, TX. With at least a core of colder cloud tops and higher lightning flash rates being maintained across the northeastern Texas Panhandle, north/east of Pampa into areas near/west and south of Gage, OK, further strengthening of the associated surface cold pool could provide support for intensifying new thunderstorm development during the next few hours. It appears that a forward (southeastward) propagating segment of the outflow will begin to encounter an increasingly unstable boundary-layer characterized by moderately large CAPE, in the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, as mid-level inhibition continues to weaken. Although this is embedded within a generally weak westerly mean environmental flow, with modest shear, the environment may be conducive to the gradual evolution of a substantive mesoscale convective vortex, accompanied by strengthening rear inflow and a further increase in potential for potentially damaging wind gusts . ...Kerr/Hart.. 06/22/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!56Q9LUJhNS6H7lnm7SAOccs8qMJDa79B19Ds1JTUi7ASqbUP-KHoYkokDk2K0bnkex4RCyc3h= BiLt8SarlVjgqsuMRk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36239958 35739891 34669712 33979839 34460027 35610076 35790003 36239958=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .