Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1205
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 16:00:43

ACUS11 KWNS 221600
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221600=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-221730-

Mesoscale Discussion 1205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of northeast North Carolina into southeast
Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221600Z - 221730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in severe potential is evident across portions
of northeast NC into southeast VA. Convective trends are being
monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

DISCUSSION...Clearing skies across portions of northeast NC into
southeast VA have allowed for some modification of the boundary
layer, with surface temperatures/dewpoints rising into the lowers
80s/70s F, resulting in 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. However, CAPE
profiles are tall and quite narrow given poor tropospheric lapse
rates (especially at the mid-level levels). Nonetheless, some
unidirectional speed shear in the mid-levels may encourage some
organization of the more persistent multicellular clusters
(currently in progress) that move into the area from central NC. In
addition, some backing of the surface winds have been noted along
the NC/VA border, where a differential heating zone also exists,
which supports hodographs with modest low-level curvature. While
damaging gusts from water-loaded downdrafts appear to be the primary
concern, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with one of the
stronger storms in the backed low-level flow environment.

Given the relatively disorganized nature of the ongoing storms and
poor mid-level lapse rates, there is some uncertainty to how
widespread the severe threat will become. However, convective trends
continue to be monitored closely for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!6uD7W8HIpPuHFc9f5XJdtB8a0GfHqueU1Nw0eoiEmCtUd1BZ7dTQnwhUgOHxEOpuQul6rU-tY=
wIQP-7nY6WtLi4YJls$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

LAT...LON   35647826 35887860 36197862 36957788 37277736 37337672
            37087616 36837588 36577587 36007573 35617593 35417652
            35417728 35427772 35647826=20


=3D =3D =3D
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