Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1207
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 17:09:12

ACUS11 KWNS 221709
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221708=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-221915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1207
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1208 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into central and
northeast Colorado and far western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 221708Z - 221915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
central High Plains. Large hail will be the main concern, with 2+
inch diameter hailstones also likely. A couple of tornadoes are also
possible. A WW issuance will be needed soon to address the impending
severe threat.

DISCUSSION...Clear skies have allowed for surface temperatures to
warm into the 70s F amid 50s F dewpoints (with 60+ F dewpoints noted
farther east in northeast CO). As such, the boundary-layer is
undergoing deepening and destabilization, with SBCAPE already
approaching 2000 J/kg in spots and visible satellite showing
deepening convection along the higher terrain of the Rockies. With
continued destabilization, SBCAPE may approach 3000 J/kg given 8
C/km mid-level lapse rates. While tropospheric flow is modest in
magnitude, considerable veering with height from the surface to 500
mb is contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs and over
40 kts of effective bulk shear. Given the strong buoyancy and
initial discrete modes of convection, supercell development is
expected. Large hail will be the main threats with these storms, and
2+ inch diameter stones appear likely with the strongest, sustained
supercells. Furthermore, modest low-level hodograph curvature, the
generation of locally higher amounts of near-surface vertical
vorticity and 0-3 km CAPE over the DCVZ, and the presence of an
outflow boundary north of LIC, may also promote the development of a
couple of tornadoes.=20

Given the overall expected coverage and magnitude of the impending
severe threat, a WW issuance will be needed.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8Ysw3FMyQU6vakBJap3YL5b2ce1Ljl8Yq2RJn7Hui78L_mRsoATtrpXJKPxk45fyc07wAxxjF=
j-7H0vaGIFMOuopISs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   39570563 40660579 41310595 42000558 42560440 42510291
            41320270 40450283 39630324 39370381 39240522 39570563=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.