Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1206
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 16:33:41

ACUS11 KWNS 221633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221633=20
FLZ000-GAZ000-221900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1206
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 221633Z - 221900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few damaging gusts are possible with developing storms
over the FL Peninsula this afternoon. The severe threat should
remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows ample clearing across the FL
Peninsula, resulting in boundary-layer destabilization and
subsequent intensification of convection over the last hour or so.
With continued heating, additional storms should develop across
central FL over the next few hours. Modest mid-level lapse rates
overspreading mid 70s F surface dewpoints will support well over
3000 J/kg SBCAPE/MUCAPE over the peninsula this afternoon.
Nonetheless, deep-layer shear should remain modest at best,
especially in the upper levels. Water-loaded downdrafts may
encourage a few damaging gusts, though an instance or two of large
hail may also occur with any of the more intense, discrete,
longer-lived updrafts that manage to develop. Nonetheless, the
severe threat should remain isolated overall and a WW issuance is
not anticipated.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_bjJsvpAqUIIALITVfF5CbwsucyQmWBkKAQJxkA6QA_CJGk6LI6t3m4Hz73wI8aau0T1rrGuh=
5_RIcBraccgsQK5yeU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   25448112 27518264 29378308 30078274 30768197 30428148
            28658074 27348024 26568016 25958027 25448112=20


=3D =3D =3D
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