Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 08:58:52

AWUS01 KWNH 220858
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-221500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0559
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
457 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...northern Florida and the Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 220857Z - 221500Z

Summary...Convection is now occurring closer to or on land, with
several hours of occasional rainfall expected across portions of
the discussion area through 15Z.

Discussion...As expected, a slight backing in low-level/850mb flow
has occurred across the Big Bend/Apalachee Bay area recently, with
more of a southwesterly orientation to the flow at around 20-30
knots.  This has allowed for the focus of heavier convection to
shift inland, and there are already subtle signs that strong
instability located offshore has begun to slowly shift inland.=20
Modifying point forecast soundings to account for the 6-8F jump in
surface temp at AAF yields potentially 4000+ J/kg SBCAPE and 2+
inch PW values with very little inhibition, supporting continued
thunderstorm development.  Radar mosaic imagery indicates a band
of convection that now extends from near CTY to FPY
west-southwestward to the Mississippi Delta.  With steering flow
aloft favoring movement of convection from the north-central Gulf
into the discussion area, the expectation is that occasional areas
of heavy rain (with rates ranging from 1-3 inches/hr) will
continue across northern Florida and the Panhandle for at least
another 6 hours (probably longer).  This notion is supported by
recent CAMs (HREF, HRRR, Nam3), which depicts convective potential
persisting perhaps through 18Z.

These continued rain rates may cause issues with excessive runoff
and flash flooding - especially in urbanized and/or hydrophobic
surfaces.  One potential drawback for a more widespread flash
flood threat is that while rainfall should persist through the
morning hours, CAMs do indicate a more broken and less-focused
band of convection that could allow for brief breaks between
heavier rainfall.  Flash flooding remains possible in this
scenario.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!79MWQpFzMrcY3z3yO06ERVrE10I15gNJ9dCouz8afOPTP5UZNJAv0RS57-tkTEUe3-FG=
Ur5DtYE_umkmyHkQmni50nA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30778361 30578240 30058161 29548200 29178341=20
            29008565 29778670 30408600 30658471=20

=3D =3D =3D
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