Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 07:10:21

AWUS01 KWNH 220710
FFGMPD
KSZ000-COZ000-221306-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0558
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...central/eastern Colorado

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220706Z - 221306Z

Summary...Persistent deep convection continues across areas near
the Colorado Front Range.  These storms are slow-moving and
continue to pose a flash flood risk over the next 3-6 hours.

Discussion...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms are persisting
across portions of central Colorado.  The storms area in an
impressive environment, with steep mid-level lapse-rates (8C/km)
persisting aloft atop strong low-level upslope continuing to
foster strong instability (nearly 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) despite an
unfavorable time of day for convection.  Relatively weak mid-level
flow has allowed for slow and at times erratic storm movement
dictated by internal storm dynamics and cold pool propagation.=20
This has allowed for multiple hours of 1-3 inch/hr rain rates and
several areas of flash flooding so far tonight.

Models/CAMs suggest a gradual lessening of low-level upslope and
upscale growth of convective clusters over time, allowing for
slightly faster forward movement of storms to the southeast.=20
Although this process appears to be underway near/northeast of
Pueblo currently, the speed/timing of upscale growth is still a
bit uncertain.  Eventually, the combination of upscale growth,
widespread convective overturning, and weakening low-level flow
into the region (resulting in somewhat less instability) should
allow for a gradual lessening flash flood risk.  This process
should take a few hours at least.  FFGs continue to remain low
near and just east of ongoing convection (around 1-1.5 inch/hr -
locally higher), and the continued, slow storm movement should
support flash flood potential through 12Z.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4FH_hLcZFKu6Re3NMsEbjiCPFHOa1NbJaJ6N3gP7GVY1whVDOeYuQi0nOTfRfBGj49IX=
AF1DU-zPMPft168z8Qf846w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GJT...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   40220415 39470284 38820208 38070190 37160201=20
            37030272 37220451 38000619 38800644 39780634=20
            40210573=20

=3D =3D =3D
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