Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1202
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 02:20:01

ACUS11 KWNS 220219
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220219=20
TXZ000-220415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0919 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...eastern portions of the Texas South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 355...

Valid 220219Z - 220415Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 355 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts, and possibly
a tornado, will likely continue for the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of severe storms
moving southward across the eastern half of the South Plains region
of Texas -- within central portions of Tornado Watch 355.  The lead
supercell is in the process of merging with what was a second cell,
and while a bit disorganized at present, may reorganize into one
large, rotating storm.

This cluster of storms is moving within the axis of greatest
instability (4500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), suggesting potential for
storms to shift south-southeastward out of the bounds of WW 355 in
the next hour and a half or so.  With that said, CAMs continue to
suggest diurnal weakening will commence over the next couple of
hours, so it remains uncertain how much risk will extend
south/southeast of the existing watch.  Still, we will continue to
monitor convective evolution, and potential that a new, small watch
may be required across areas south of WW 355 and north of San
Angelo.

...Goss.. 06/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9-cdAKtIBGAD452vXF3l-KiVytBTLY7xlRCbvuLyM8iZoWXGU4ekkVRagCzxungsPOf3oCdSp=
8YOqzH21BcERFRSGsU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   34210119 34440021 32829932 32179974 32420097 34210119=20


=3D =3D =3D
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