Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 01:47:12

AWUS01 KWNH 220147
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-220700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0555
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
946 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...Central High Plains

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 220145Z - 220700Z

SUMMARY...Strong-to-severe storms continue pose a flash flood
threat into the evening hours. Highly urbanized areas and
locations with sensitive soils are most at-risk.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 IR imagery paints a busy picture throughout
much of the Great Plains as robust thunderstorm activity persists.
Doppler Radar in northeast CO showed an outflow boundary had
recently tracks through the Denver metro area and was heading fro
the Palmer Divide and Front Range. Additional thunderstorms may
form in the following ways: in wake of the outflow boundary's
passage, as the boundary collides with the two aforementioned
topographic features, or from future outflow boundaries spawned
from current convection. Storms are forming in an environment that
has 1,500-3,000 MUCAPE and 1.0-1.25" PWATs, the latter of which is
supplied via a prolonged southeasterly 850mb moisture transport.
RAP mesoanalysis maintains the environment is highly sheared with
40-50 knots of effective bulk shear and 100-200 m2/s2 of effective
SRH.

RAP soundings near the Denver metro area show warm cloud layers
remains up to 9,000' in depth. With an environment favorable for
thunderstorms to contain mesocyclones, these storms will be
capable of being highly efficient rainfall producers. MRMS 1-hr
QPE suggest some storms east of Denver managed to produce up to 3"
rainfall totals. There is the potential for storms forming off the
Front Range to track northeast over areas currently getting hit
north of Denver. As these storms congeal, a more organized cluster
may form and track east and hit areas that have already dealt with
excessive rainfall earlier this afternoon. With several more hours
of intense thunderstorms expected, additional flash flooding is
likely to transpire tonight. Note that with the sun setting,
flooded roadways will be increasingly harder to identify.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7jra60Quhaof2Cpx9nwnWogT-yaADGoq0A0sP1J4NLPyjVx4Rm_4qWpAv8sHxgNIoBYk=
V16NZD--yqhHD4qivQvUjuA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   42860451 42810346 41970296 41150189 39730218=20
            38970363 38690468 38750522 39540560 40620560=20
            41930561=20

=3D =3D =3D
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