Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1199
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 01:06:00

ACUS11 KWNS 220105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220105=20
TXZ000-220200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0805 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...Texas Caprock vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 355...

Valid 220105Z - 220200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 355 continues.

SUMMARY...The supercell tornado threat is likely peaking during the
next hour or so in the Texas Caprock vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from LBB shows an intense/persistent
supercell tracking southeastward in Motley County Texas this
evening. Ahead of this storm, backed east-southeasterly surface
winds beneath around 50 kt 500-mb flow (per 00Z observed AMA
sounding) is contributing to 50-60 kt of effective shear and around
250 m2/s2 effective SRH. Given a corridor of extreme surface-based
instability and a lack of storms nearby, the supercell tornado
threat is likely peaking during the next hour or so, and a strong
tornado is possible.

...Weinman.. 06/22/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8KockvrOCeDi2378KMW5Ger28rPXAuJ8TDsukz4QX0woXYsU7vSG4w1gAO4QyaHVQmJsFN97w=
0DjEgo-7KoGDrfcxck$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...

LAT...LON   33630103 33920114 34100108 34270075 34300048 34250028
            33990009 33419999 33130017 33130061 33270085 33630103=20


=3D =3D =3D
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