Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Jun 22 2023 01:01:31 ACUS01 KWNS 220101 SWODY1 SPC AC 220100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Intense severe thunderstorms are expected this evening over parts of the southern High Plains, where severe gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ....Southern Great Plains into the northwest Gulf Coast... Several ongoing severe thunderstorm clusters will continue into the evening across TX Panhandle, northwest TX, central TX, and southeast TX. A rather large moist/extremely unstable airmass resides across northwest TX and the TX Panhandle southward into central and southeast TX. A mid-level anticyclone centered over northern MX will continue to feature disturbances/convectively modulated weakness in the height field across the northern periphery of the mid-level anticyclone. Large to giant hail, severe to significant gusts, and the possibility for a few tornadoes remains mainly across the TX Panhandle south-southeastward into the Big Country. As a slight strengthening of 850-mb flow occurs this evening, storm consolidation and upscale growth is forecast this evening with one or more convective complexes expected to persist late tonight. Severe gusts will be the primary hazard once the convective mode transitions to a linear mode. For short-term convective details over the TX Panhandle and Caprock vicinity, refer to MCD #1197. ....Central High Plains into the Dakotas... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this evening extend from near the Black Hills southward into eastern CO. A very moisture-rich airmass protrudes north-northwest from the southern High Plains into eastern CO and the NE Panhandle. Although the ribbon of stronger mid-level flow will remain across northern WY into eastern MT/western ND, weak to moderate southwesterly flow across the central High Plains will facilitate organized severe storms given the large buoyancy. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards this evening before a gradual waning in the severe risk by late tonight as the boundary layer slowly cools. ...Smith.. 06/22/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .