Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 23:47:46 AWUS01 KWNH 212347 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220525- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0554 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 746 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Areas affected...Southeast CO...Southwest KS...TX/OK Panhandles Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 212345Z - 220525Z SUMMARY...Thunderstorms ignited by a remnant outflow boundary may take advantage of rich atmospheric moisture and high instability levels to produce excessive rainfall rates of 2-2.5"/hr. Locations sporting saturated and sensitive soils are most at risk. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-16 satellite imagery shows severe thunderstorms in portions of northeast CO and southeast WY, while storms fire along a remnant outflow boundary in the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS. These storms are in a highly favorable environment for not only the ongoing rounds of storms to sustain themselves for several more hours, but for additional thunderstorm development. RAP forecasts show PWs will continue to increase as low-level winds from OK allows for a strong 850mb moisture transport to be aimed at the central High Plains. This will not only inject the region with higher moisture, but this also acts as a steady inflow source and as an upslope component to aid in vertical ascent. RAP forecasts show as much as 40-50 knots worth of effective bulk vertical wind shear and up to 100 m2/2 of effective SRH. Combined with as much as 4,000 J/kg of MLCAPE, thunderstorms will be able to maintain strong-to-severe status into the evening hours. Storms to the north are expected to congeal and track south along the instability gradient towards the higher MLCAPE values. Dew points will also be on the rise, likely as high as 70 degrees in some areas. RAP forecast soundings in southeast CO this evening show warm cloud layers as deep as 10,000' with highly curved low-level hodographs. The approaching thunderstorms could contain mesocyclones that would enhance precipitation rates and increase the potential for flash flooding. In addition, soils remain sensitive due to 7-day rainfall totals in southeast CO and southwest KS that were as much as 300-400% of normal according to AHPS. These areas, as well as in poor drainage spots and urbanized communities are most at-risk to possible flash flooding this evening. Mullinax ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5c9cFp9aIgw7clyZcvLZ-S4b_R8FZ3cD4EbXPZx-NcUExfWmKZh5J2XuPkeJnoMb6muc= M_CgRDYPWIhXdrldPzOa9LU$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...GLD...PUB... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39130299 39000239 38360191 37140144 35750107=20 35540184 36510262 36860360 37640475 38090511=20 38480509 38640487 38740410=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .