Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1197
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 23:39:58

ACUS11 KWNS 212339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212339=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-220115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0639 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...and
into the Texas South Plains

Concerning...Tornado Watch 351...

Valid 212339Z - 220115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 351 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe/isolated tornado risk continues across the western
half of WW 351, and may expand southward into the South Plains
region with time.  A new Tornado Watch may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken line of supercell
storms extending from extreme southwestern Kansas southward to areas
east and southeast of Amarillo.  The convection is occurring near a
composite dryline/outflow -- outflow which spread westward from
earlier-day Oklahoma storms.

A narrow axis of strong instability (mixed-layer CAPE values locally
in excess of 4500 J/kg) is indicated along the boundary, which is
fueling the ongoing storms, while low-level southeasterlies across
the area topped by mid-level westerlies near 40 kt continue to
provide favorable shear for both mid-level and low-level rotation.

While very large hail remains the primary risk at this time, a
couple of tornadoes will be possible, with the storm over Armstrong
County Texas possibly having produced a brief/weak tornado recently.
 With time, storms should expand southward, into the South Plains
region, which may require new WW issuance.

...Goss.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-EY2-z412J2oGCxD91mS7yNHC0X2DHjX6-k9PO-TzwyVloCA7izinbs9bVpoTXYb_E0aH14W4=
eRhnk0jgt9tni2a4oA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37030236 37550178 36940092 35670037 33889967 33070032
            33160096 34640188 37030236=20


=3D =3D =3D
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