Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1193
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 21:52:55

ACUS11 KWNS 212152
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212152=20
KSZ000-COZ000-212245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 212152Z - 212245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is likely to be issued for the potential for large
hail and damaging winds. Timing of the peak of severe activity is a
bit uncertain, however.

DISCUSSION...Isolated convection is trying to develop along the
Front Range and along outflow in southeastern Colorado. Subtle
ascent is evident on water vapor imagery. So far storms have
struggled to become rooted. However, the environment is very
unstable with 3000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE. 40-50 kts of shear across the
terrain and boundary would promote discrete supercell capable of
large hail (perhaps to 2 inches) and damaging wind gusts. The
tornado risk currently appears low, but there will be some increase
in the 850 mb southeasterly winds in the region later this evening.
Again, there is some uncertainty with whether this initial activity
will mature. With the large amounts of convection in northeast
Colorado, there is also concern that activity will build
southeastward into the large buoyancy. A watch is likely going to be
issued for both possibilities.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9-OTf_bVK9XVaNZCFOsw6n6ID5TpvmZWGVd6otbRJWAsaBPbASoln9XVaMzdC9uZrHCWrFBQP=
9t1ebDNcMoxVgQDLx4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   37780468 38050482 39190322 39420278 39210201 38340162
            37590196 37160275 37010335 37120390 37780468=20


=3D =3D =3D
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