Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1190
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 20:21:54

ACUS11 KWNS 212021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212021=20
TXZ000-212215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1190
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0321 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...parts of north central Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 212021Z - 212215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least isolated intense thunderstorm development
probably will persist and pose a risk for very large hail and
locally damaging wind gusts while moving southeastward across
eastern portions of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex through 4-6 PM
CDT.  Initiation of additional storms remains unclear, but trends
are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Downstream of a dissipating thunderstorm cluster,
forcing for ascent associated with weak mid-level warm advection
likely has supported the area of weak, high based convection now
overspreading much of north central Texas.  It appears that this
activity is rooted above the strongly capping elevated mixed-layer
layer.  However, recent rapidly intensifying thunderstorm
development to the north of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex probably
is being forced through this layer, perhaps supported by lift
associated with a gravity wave emanating from the early day
convective cluster.

Due to veering wind profiles with height, beneath 30 kt
northwesterly 500 mb flow, deep-layer shear is strong and supportive
of evolving supercell structures.  Despite the strength of the
mid-level inhibition, it appears that this could sustain intense
convection, increasingly supported by near-surface inflow of
seasonably high moisture content chacterized by extreme CAPE in
excess of 4000 J/kg.  Very large hail and locally damaging wind
gusts are possible while activity tends to propagate across and
south-southeast of eastern portions of the Metroplex late this
afternoon.

...Kerr/Hart.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!9F_3lAHa-zmSDSygXJwNXu_FSz92MRLFD1mJuGGnqY7WJ4wFp98qHKsF4O_H5TyRuMFGXkA9a=
QAWg84WITTWXQ27NF4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   33419708 32969540 31149611 31949778 33439853 33419708=20


=3D =3D =3D
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