Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1189
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 18:52:55

ACUS11 KWNS 211852
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211852=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-212115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1189
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle
vicinity...southwestern Kansas and southeastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 211852Z - 212115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may begin to initiate as early as 3-5 PM
CDT, including a few rapidly developing and intensifying supercells.

DISCUSSION...Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture is being
maintained on easterly to southeasterly flow into lee surface
troughing.  Coupled with continuing strong surface heating, beneath
steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, this is contributing to
extreme potential instability across the eastern Texas Panhandle
into southwestern Kansas.  It appears that initially substantial
mid-level inhibition is beginning to weaken, as a weak mid/upper
impulse progresses across northeastern New Mexico into the Panhandle
vicinity, within larger-scale anticyclonic flow.

Low-level forcing for convective development remains more uncertain,
but locally enhanced convergence within the lee surface troughing
and westward advancing/propagating outflow and gravity waves,
emanating from a decaying cluster of storms across eastern Kansas
and Oklahoma, may provide support.  The latest Rapid Refresh and
High Resolution Refresh suggest that thunderstorms could begin to
initiate as early as 20-21Z.  Once this occurs, rapid
intensification is likely, with sufficient deep-layer shear to
support supercells.  These may become capable of producing very
large hail and strong downbursts, while tending to propagate
south-southeastward.  Despite initially weak low-level shear, at
least some risk for tornadoes may eventually develop, before more
substantive upscale growth occurs this evening.

...Kerr/Hart.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-6xvzSIQnLyVt5QToH8WJOT8xyjjnDaq-_w5LGRb6OsHYPax3GX-kV46jfaLw6azJfkkFJbsY=
L-ObmQM8hx-OATF_SQ$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   37910223 37890113 37019993 36269960 34779954 34069994
            34090099 34730140 36280156 37910223=20


=3D =3D =3D
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