Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1188
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 17:52:22

ACUS11 KWNS 211752
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211751=20
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-212015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1188
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska
Panhandle...central and eastern Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 211751Z - 212015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
central High Plains. Large hail and damaging winds are likely, with
tornadoes also possible across far northern CO into southeast WY. A
WW issuance will be needed soon to address the impending threat.

DISCUSSION...An upper trough continues to progress toward the
central Rockies, triggering a low-level mass response in the form of
strong moisture advection with upslope flow. Up to 8 C/km low and
mid-level lapse rates accompanies/overspreads anomalously rich
low-level moisture (characterized by 70 F surface dewpoints per
latest observations), contributing up to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. As
inhibition continues to erode, and the boundary layer deepens,
convective initiation should occur to the immediate lee of the
Rockies within the next few hours. Veering/strengthening flow with
height supports modestly curved low/mid-level hodographs, which may
favor supercells and multicell complexes early this afternoon. Large
hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and severe gusts may occur with
any of the more mature storms that develop. In addition, locally
stronger low-level shear will support some tornado potential across
far northern CO, northwestward into WY. Tornado potential will be
highest wherever storms can remain discrete the longest. A WW
issuance will be needed soon.

...Squitieri/Hart.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4_upSIleH8miCxZ-tUYLVs1fByn15bALzzVrvMdxfJ7CwMTlKgo-3mmVeLg6Xh4GvBdDkg5Bq=
MZ5VYGiGhQG8IIfyTE$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON   38510492 40290524 42440529 42740466 42810383 42630312
            42230223 40980184 39560236 38790318 38440374 38510492=20


=3D =3D =3D
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