Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 16:25:24 ACUS01 KWNS 211625 SWODY1 SPC AC 211623 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING...AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.... ....SUMMARY... Intense severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the central and southern Plains, where severe gusts, very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. ....TX/OK... Morning water vapor imagery shows a large upper trough over the western states, with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds across much of the central and southern High Plains. At the surface, an extremely moist and potentially unstable air mass (dewpoints in the mid 70s) is present from the eastern TX Panhandle eastward into western OK, and extending southeastward into central TX. Full heating will lead to afternoon MLCAPE values of 5000-6000 J/kg and minimal cap. Large scale forcing is weak, but circulations along the surface dryline will lead to rapidly thunderstorm development from extreme southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. These storms are likely to be supercells capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. These storms are likely to slowly congeal into one or more bowing complexes by mid evening, tracking southeastward into northwest and central TX. Several morning CAM solutions suggest the potential for a corridor of significant wind damage if this scenario unfolds. ....Eastern CO/Southeast WY... An extremely moist and unstable low-level air mass is streaming into the central High Plains, with dewpoints in the 70s being transported westward into the higher elevations of the eastern CO/southeast WY plains. Strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3000 J/kg. All morning CAM solutions agree on the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon along the front range and foothills, as well as the DCVZ along the Palmer Ridge. A combination of backed low-level winds and 30+ knots of southwesterly flow aloft will promote supercell structures capable of very large hail and a few tornadoes. The threat of severe storms may persist much of the evening, building southward along the Front Range into southeast CO. ...Hart/Squitieri.. 06/21/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .