Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 16:02:07

AWUS01 KWNH 211602
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-212200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0550
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1201 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...Georgia...South Carolina...Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211600Z - 212200Z

SUMMARY...Numerous small-scale/slower moving thunderstorms are
expected to continue and further develop within a rich tropical
airmass, broad cyclonic flow, and near a quasi-stationary boundary
throughout the Southeast this afternoon. Localized heavy rain
could create isolated instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...A nearly vertically stacked low pressure system over
central AL is creating uniform southerly flow to the east into
much of the Southeast, including eastern AL, GA, and into SC. A
mid-to-upper level low extends from central AL to northern GA with
a surface low just to the west of Montgomery, AL. PWs are widely
into the 1.7-1.9" range, which is near the 90th percentile over
central GA per SPC's sounding climatology at FFC. The sounding at
FFC also indicated a long-skinny CAPE profile and a high WBZ
height ~12k feet. This denotes warm rain processes are likely
within heavier downpours. MUCAPE >1000 J/kg extends along and to
the south of a stationary front bisecting the region, allowing for
enough instability to maintain convection throughout the region
despite weak upper flow and vertical wind shear.

The last 7 days have been very wet across parts of
central/southern AL and GA, where rainfall anomalies over the last
week are >200%. 3-hr FFGs range between 2-3" generally, with
widespread 12z HREF neighborhood exceedance probs of 40-50% for
3"/3-hr by 21z over the region. The smaller-scale updrafts should
limit the coverage for flash flooding and create more of an
isolated threat where storms are slow to move. This scenario is
already noted to the southwest of Albany, GA, where a small area
of radar estimated rainfall amounts over the last few hours has
exceeded 3".

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_vxZXNeUrNDfG5oYKSt182wW8tfz72dOb_s5JgiFHW9JZ3p1Dm1p3MPRY7zGcv1q00HI=
CsglegOak4uWEyYJQJewsp0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34028518 34008277 33678154 33028138 32118199=20
            31278294 30758420 30948561 32128645 33008683=20
            33748646=20

=3D =3D =3D
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