Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 14:03:06

AWUS01 KWNH 211403
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-212000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0549
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1002 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...North FL... Far Southern GA...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211401Z - 212000Z

SUMMARY...Building convection across the FL Big Bend and extending
throughout northern portions of the FL Peninsula has been
estimated to contain 3"/hr rainfall rates. Continuing convection
could lead to areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Warm and moist tropical airmass over the Southeast
with PWs of 1.8-2.0" and MLCAPE up to 2000 J/kg are aiding in
early convective initiation this morning. 20-30 kts of
southwesterly 850mb flow around a large upper low over the
Tennessee Valley will allow for activity and elevated instability
(2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) over the northeast Gulf of Mexico.
Slow-moving convection as noted by sfc-2km flow of 9 kts via the
12z TLH sounding is expected over the FL Big Bend and northern FL
Peninsula. Meanwhile, an MCS moving onshore from the northeast
Gulf should slide slightly southward as an outflow boundary drapes
from the central FL Peninsula into the Gulf. Both of these areas
and convective modes could produce 2-3"/hr rates and rainfall
amounts up to 5" in localized spots where convection is slower to
move.

Most areas have received 150-300% of normal rainfall over the last
7 days, possibly exacerbating the flash flood risk a bit. The
relatively higher FFGs of this region should limit the flash flood
risk, with localized 3-5" amounts producing the possible flooding
concerns. As always, urban areas will be most at risk since water
will not be able to runoff quick enough under the intense rainfall
rates.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!5woObY-PBkLmKfXBzAFvYhm4UigYq2NcJVWkBhRpgEfT6zTSJvjyPEZ2rvob4Vf9lXLG=
0MF46CVBxFL2OtZwKreDF44$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30878337 30318235 29288197 27928214 27658294=20
            28938332 29768387 30228492 30828466=20

=3D =3D =3D
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