Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 12:40:33

AWUS01 KWNH 211240
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-211700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0548
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
839 AM EDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected......Nebraska...Kansas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 211238Z - 211700Z

SUMMARY...Different modes of convection producing areas of heavy
rain across parts of Nebraska and Kansas could be slow moving at
times and pose an isolated flash flood risk through midday.

DISCUSSION...A mature MCS in central KS is occuring within an
envirnoment of 1.6-1.8" PWs and 25-30 kts of south-southeasterly
850 mb flow. Additionally, this convection falls along a very
tight instability gradient, featuring >4000 J/kg MLCAPE over
western OK and parts of southwest KS per SPC's mesoanalysis. While
the southern end of the MCS remains progressive enough to limit
flash flooding, the northern half of the MCS is producing
2-2.5"/hr rainfall rates per MRMS and has the chance to see
forward progression slow due to more a more easterly component to
the 850mb winds in this area.

Farther north into north-central Ks and central NE, broad warm air
advection along and just to the east of a tight
moisture/instability gradient exists with areas of broken, but
slow moving convection. Diffulent flow aloft combined with
convergent 850mb flow is allowing for contuing thunderstorm
activity into the morning hours despite sufficent instability
being displaced to the west-southwest. This may allow for
redeveloping convection to form near and west of current activity,
but the slow moving nature could still allow for an additional
2-4" of rain. FFGs in the region are between 2-3"/3-hr, which
could be exceeded in isolated instances.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_Z1x9OJWKqnv6Dwk73oQVjPhv2bEW1ZfI50FmxoFci_8T4KPK1W5PzY1DFy_WHFfAqnf=
ogDAqhV4yipcgEev2_Q6-tg$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...LBF...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   41859922 41439807 40019716 38429693 37879759=20
            38029869 39490000 40750079 41520054=20

=3D =3D =3D
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