Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1186
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 11:09:21

ACUS11 KWNS 211109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211108=20
KSZ000-OKZ000-211345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1186
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...much of central Kansas...extreme northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 348...

Valid 211108Z - 211345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 348
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms remain possible mainly across
southern parts of WW 348, with both hail and wind threat. Some
severe threat could eventually materialize into far northern
Oklahoma.

DISCUSSION...Storms have congealed into a small MCS with a prominent
leading outflow boundary over central KS. The instability/CIN
gradient remains situated over the area, with the most unstable air
mass from western OK into western KS. Northern portions of the MCS
are now interacting with the cooler air mass around Salina KS, which
extends south toward Wichita. However, higher dewpoints do exist
just south and west of this area which may support a continued
severe threat into south-central KS.

Area VWPs from ICT and VNX indicate veering of the winds just above
the surface is occurring, and this may serve to bring the more
unstable air northward ahead of the MCS. Therefore, although the
area from Wichita to Ponca City is currently less unstable than
points west, the effective inflow just above the surface layer could
destabilize enough for a severe wind risk over the next several
hours.

...Jewell.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!57pqeYJPjU-dY6gSItZyUIWmTo38Og94xnIky1QSzPytYwhKw507tDrShSSZAAIze2_WkFBEQ=
bwavubsLM_0Dw0F6dY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   37329945 37439940 37559907 37719869 37889841 38069817
            38279803 38609783 38589765 37639742 36899814 36949915
            37329945=20


=3D =3D =3D
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