Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1185
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 06:25:49

ACUS11 KWNS 210625
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210625=20
KSZ000-210930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1185
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...most of central Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 210625Z - 210930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage tonight over much of
central Kansas, with marginal hail and conditional damaging-wind
potential.

DISCUSSION...The first storms have formed over west-central KS
recently, situated near the nose of the surface mid 70s F dewpoint
plume/theta-e axis which extends southward into western OK. A
secondary theta-e gradient stretches from south-central NE toward
Wichita, separating the lower and upper 60s F dewpoints. Given the
orientation of the initial storms, it appears they may be rooted in
the moist layer between 850-700 mb.

Area VWPs indicate southeasterly winds at 925 mb, veering to
south/southeast at 850 mb and then west/southwest at 700 mb where
they are weak. This results in a looping low-level hodograph with
little length aloft, which should favor very slow-moving storms.

Given MLCAPE over 3500 J/kg over western KS on the warm side of the
boundary and ample precipitable water, this area of storms is
anticipated to grow. Weak shear and large MLCAPE may support brief
hail cores, but the primary concern is for storms to eventually
produce an outflow pool, and possibly propagate southeastward with
damaging-wind potential. If this scenario plays out, a watch could
be needed.

...Jewell.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!64sOZe35wieuy0121h4IBbN1W96TrTSSE9UUrZyJvpkdjsZ4SXaASng6SrV-UmYUS_4lH8jAS=
UlCm4vOj8nM1oHnvwA$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   38329999 38770036 39340029 39559978 39449868 38889751
            38269693 37999678 37739678 37529707 37479757 37689877
            38329999=20


=3D =3D =3D
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