Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1184
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 04:50:47

ACUS11 KWNS 210450
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210450=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-210645-

Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming...Western South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347...

Valid 210450Z - 210645Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage will likely
continue for a couple more hours across parts of the northern High
Plains.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Rapid
City, South Dakota shows a cluster of strong to severe storms from
far eastern Wyoming into far western South Dakota. These storms are
located near and to the north of a quasi-stationary front, where
low-level convergence is maximized. The RAP suggests that MLCAPE
near the boundary is in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range, and that 0-6 km
shear is near 40 knots. This area is also located near an axis of
steep mid-level lapse rates, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are
estimated to be near 8.0 C/km. This environment will likely continue
support a severe threat over the next couple hours. Supercells and
short bowing line segments will have wind damage potential. Isolated
large hail will also be possible.

...Broyles.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8t96xZ0b0xgIPD2KNRuGy_wlIZhyNpCSr4YVkz3_cDThhTinS4FyIECHw5UAgokpsit7AUQ-s=
f_9zKI7oYUcrIZtEW8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   45270316 45300257 45040217 44470210 43880259 42900367
            42720453 42900490 43510508 44150444 45050351 45270316=20


=3D =3D =3D
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