Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1183
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 01:40:45

ACUS11 KWNS 210140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210140=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-210345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1183
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0840 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Central Dakotas...Northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344...345...

Valid 210140Z - 210345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 344, 345
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue for several more
hours from the central Dakotas southward into far northern Nebraska.
Large hail and wind damage will be the primary threats.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a north-to-south
quasi-stationary front located across the central Dakotas. MLCAPE
along this corridor is from 2000 to 4000 J/kg according the RAP. One
area of storms is located near a maximum in instability across
north-central North Dakota, with a second located in southern South
Dakota near another instability max. Water vapor imagery shows a
shortwave trough over the central High Plains. As this feature
approaches from the southwest, large-scale ascent will continue to
be favorable for convective development. The HRRR suggests that the
greatest convective coverage will be across central South Dakota
over the next few hours. In addition to the instability, 0-6 km
shear along and near the front is near 45 knots with 700-500 mb
lapse rates in the 7.5 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. Wind damage will also be likely with
supercells and short line segments.

...Broyles.. 06/21/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!8ACopA4oyV585a4zaR7v6whs9He94jpaV5-xjkqqGY92idrfjDqKa1jmTnkSP1iF7DGmKDQ9E=
2PLHwE0o9VY5Tr-i4k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   48979882 48999944 48530012 47900093 47380160 46550205
            44940151 43290164 42690154 42410124 42400075 42780042
            44340032 45810046 46890003 48489870 48979882=20


=3D =3D =3D
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