Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 01:02:25

AWUS01 KWNH 210102
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-210500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0544
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
902 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Central GA...Central SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 210100Z - 210500Z

SUMMARY...Rounds of thunderstorms look to linger into the evening
hours that may produce up to 2"/hr rainfall rates. Flash flooding
is possible, especially in urbanized communities and areas with
overly saturated soils.

DISCUSSION...A stalled frontal boundary oriented west to east from
central GA to the SC coast continues to be the focus for
developing thunderstorm activity. The other feature driving
thunderstorms this evening is a 500mb vorticity maximum analyzed
on RAP mesoanalysis. Farther west, thunderstorms produced an
outflow boundary propagating south of Macon. The environment
remains favorable for these storms to produce rainfall rates with
PWATs between 1.8-2.0" and MUCAPE ranging between 1,000-2,000
J/kg. Area averaged HRRR soundings at 02Z in central GA shows
low-mid level RH values near 85% and warm cloud layers between
12,000-13,000ft deep.

Look for the outflow boundary to spawn more thunderstorms in
central GA, while the 500mb vorticity max and aforementioned
frontal boundary prolong the ongoing cluster of storms for a few
more hours. MRMS 1-hr QPE showed most of the heavier storms were
producing 1.5-2.0" amounts. Should they track over cities or in
areas with sensitive soils, it is possible for flash flooding may
occur. Storms should wind down with the loss of daytime heating
beyond 04Z, but a couple lone strong storms cannot be fully ruled
out.=20

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8SqpNgpBR_Atvwe13FwiLfq7_90yGv3TRs9v5ClMMtckcNFtZ7EIBKG_TTc8D6EagifD=
ZF_D0XXQKQeF2GK9bt9ctFI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   34468182 34348116 34178082 33908057 33308056=20
            32628118 32218210 31988339 32168465 32568493=20
            32938443 33368357 33768287 34168258 34388216=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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