Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Jun 21 2023 01:02:17 ACUS01 KWNS 210102 SWODY1 SPC AC 210100 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms persist into tonight across parts of the northern Plains, and also the southern Louisiana area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats. ....Northern Plains... Strong/locally severe storms are ongoing near a surface cold front across central North Dakota, and extending southward in a more isolated manner across central South Dakota to north-central Nebraska. Meanwhile, more isolated storms are ongoing from northwestern parts of the Nebraska Panhandle northwestward into Wyoming. With the southeastern fringe of stronger southwesterly mid-level flow atop this region, shear remains sufficient for organized convection. With ample instability indicated -- particularly in a narrow axis in the vicinity of the surface front, local risk for hail and damaging wind gusts is expected to continue over the next several hours. ....Louisiana vicinity... Strong/locally severe storms are ongoing across parts of central and southern Louisiana at this time, and are drifting slowly southward/southwestward with time. Given a favorably moist/unstable airmass across the area, and 40 kt north-northwesterly mid-level flow providing ample shear, local severe risk will continue over the next few hours across this region. ....Central Plains area... CAM runs continue to hint that convective development may occur later this evening across the northern Kansas/southern Nebraska vicinity. This development appears to be associated with a short-wave trough emerging into western Kansas per WV imagery, and which seems to be associated with isolated storm development from the Nebraska Panhandle southward to western Kansas. Once established, some upscale growth could occur, with subsequent southward propagation across central Kansas. Locally strong wind gusts, and possibly hail, could occur with the strongest storms, should this somewhat-still-uncertain scenario evolve, and thus will expand low hail/wind probabilities/MRGL risk eastward to central portions of Nebraska and Kansas. ...Goss.. 06/21/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .