Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1180
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 23:58:18

ACUS11 KWNS 202358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202357=20
KSZ000-210230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1180
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Western Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 202357Z - 210230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will be possible early this
evening across parts of western Kansas. Developing cells could
produce isolated severe hail and damaging wind gusts. Conditionally,
a watch could be needed if storms can persist and continue to grow
upscale.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Goodland, Kansas
shows convective initiation occurring about 80 miles to the south of
Goodland. This convection is located on the western edge of a
corridor of strong instability where MLCAPE is in the 2000 to 4000
J/kg range and low-level convergence appears to be maximized. On
water vapor imagery, a subtle shortwave trough is evident from
southwest Colorado into far southwest Kansas. This feature could
provide support for continued convective development over the next
few hours. At this time, there is uncertainty concerning whether a
severe threat can persist, mainly due to 700 mb temperatures near
+15 C, which are contributing to a strong cap. In spite of this,
isolated convection may continue to grow upscale and a severe threat
will be possible for a couple hours. Large hail and wind damage
would be the primary threats.

...Broyles/Thompson.. 06/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5m0_4aHltyL_09_DgAt_DQZy_SrXeWnQ5uROqHWLpnajHSpJkwtIWB3g1_fAz1zFCacjgpmXm=
aWhBV4qExFyW3EBnv4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON   37770092 38190028 38599996 38950006 39180040 39200068
            39070110 38580173 38210196 37860190 37680151 37770092=20


=3D =3D =3D
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