Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1178
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 22:02:13

ACUS11 KWNS 202202
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202201=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-210000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1178
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0501 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern and south-central Louisiana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 202201Z - 210000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated large hail will be possible
with a storm cluster moving westward into south-central Louisiana. A
watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Large buoyancy and modest effective shear values are in
place again across parts of southern Louisiana. A cluster of strong
to severe storms continues to move westward into the greater
buoyancy. Other isolated cellular activity has thus far been slow to
become sustained, likely due to warm air aloft present on the
observed 12Z LCH sounding. MRMS MESH data has shown some tendency
for newer storm cores to have 1-1.5 inch hail signatures. Isolated
large hail and damaging winds will continue to be possible into the
early evening. The western extent of the severe threat will be
limited by the warmer air aloft. A watch is possible this evening
should convective trends warrant.

...Wendt/Thompson.. 06/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4nLEhJ__OpX9UD8Peoln7gzip1co1XwuxJAMbAlXWNH-AQjKI-wHvUvubECrNp5m_ynVdDWmn=
Iz2o443iyx3rHwvFo8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   29119104 29359187 29559220 30069263 30699309 31239325
            31419289 31369232 30949105 30569083 29829035 29319019
            29069053 29119104=20


=3D =3D =3D
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