Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1174
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 14:45:40

ACUS11 KWNS 201445
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201444=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-201715-

Mesoscale Discussion 1174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0944 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...northwest through southeastern Louisiana and
adjacent portions of southwestern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 201444Z - 201715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorms posing increasing risk for
large hail and locally strong downbursts is possible through Noon-1
PM CDT.  Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe
weather watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently initiated in a narrow
corridor east- southeast of Shreveport, LA through the Gulfport, MS
vicinity.  This appears roughly aligned with a baroclinic zone
around 850 mb, likely aided by forcing for ascent associated with
weak frontogenesis and/or warm advection.  A subtle mid-level short
wave impulse has been apparent in recent water vapor loops, and is
now digging southeastward across the Ark-La-Tex region.=20=20

This initially elevated convective development probably is still
being forced through a relatively warm layer centered around 700 mb.
 However, the continued southeastward progression of the mid-level
wave may erode this capping layer.  Furthermore, latest Rapid
Refresh suggests that boundary-layer warming with insolation will
result in increasingly negligible inhibition in a narrow corridor
immediately south of ongoing convection through 16-18Z.=20=20

As this occurs, potential exists for rapidly intensifying
thunderstorm development, increasingly rooted in a boundary-layer
becoming characterized by large CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg.=20
Although deep-layer shear beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level
flow is modest, the environment still appears conducive to a risk
for large hail and locally damaging downbursts with strongest storms
into early afternoon.

...Kerr/Hart.. 06/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_QoPr2UNHrafxPNKLyqQ1LU8tML4aAdVXl2aNHyA4pWWkV65k7DtfZoFqvBW2UFWuHYpg9N63=
DROYhqijWaVr6qgBzM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON   32209350 31969250 31549153 31209062 30908995 29658804
            29258822 29379000 30339158 31219274 31769348 32209350=20


=3D =3D =3D
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