Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 12:15:18

AWUS01 KWNH 201215
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-201700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0536
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
814 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Upstate SC...Western NC...Southwest VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 201211Z - 201700Z

SUMMARY...Continued shower and scattered thunderstorm activity
into favorable upslope terrain (including the Blue Ridge) along
with saturated soils will favor additional isolated chances for
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-East satellite imagery and regional radar
mosaic depicts widespread shower activity along with embedded
slow-moving thunderstorms oriented along the eastern slopes of the
southern Appalachians, extending from Upstate SC to southwest
Virginia. Scattered 1"/hr rainfall rates are highlighted within
recent MRMS data, along with with localized rates up to 3"/hr
south of Blacksburg, VA. These localized higher rainfall rates are
associated with warm rain processes (noted overnight by high WBZ
heights (~12K feet) within nearby 00z soundings). However, IR
imagery from GOES-East shows warming cloud tops associated with
weakening convection, which is supported by RAP analysis depicting
the separation of better instability over SC (500-1000 J/kg) and
better south-southeasterly mid-level moisture flux over southwest
VA.

This weakening morning convection will limit additional flash
flood chances to a more isolated threat through mid-morning, until
daytime heating can allow for more organized heavy rainfall.
Regardless, low FFG (widespread <2"/1-hr and <2.5"/3-hr) due to
sensitive terrain and saturated soils will create the threat for
additional flash flooding. 24-hour QPE throughout the highlighted
region shows this area has received widespread 1-3" amounts
through 11z this morning, with recent HRRR guidance showing an
additional 1-2" possible through 16z.

Snell

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!40uvi1q2f0M9CcFzMf1E1wL84S8CWYtAl-qpDraCDDtqsIuyEr6rK9wqY5QA-p-csVum=
zoJsGAtdFOityzdzmEKx6iI$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MARFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37407995 37177944 36737956 36028067 35388163=20
            34678260 34988337 36008234 36618168 37348080=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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