Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 08:49:15

AWUS01 KWNH 200848
FFGMPD
FLZ000-201247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0535
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Big Bend of FL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200847Z - 201247Z

SUMMARY...Rather slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms crossing the Big Bend of FL over the next few hours
may result in some isolated instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows clusters of heavy
shower and thunderstorm activity impacting portions of the Big
Bend of FL in conjunction with confluent and very moist/unstable
flow advancing northeast in off the northeast Gulf of Mexico. The
flow aloft is also rather divergent given advance of a shortwave
impulse rounding the base of the mid-level closed low/trough over
the TN Valley/Mid-South region.

There is a modest low-level jet of 20 to 30 kts in place over the
northeast Gulf of Mexico that is helping to transport as much as
1500 to 2500 J/kg of MLCAPE into the region. And this coupled with
deep tropical moisture characterized by 2+ inch PWs and the
aforementioned shortwave dynamics should maintain clusters of
convection over at least the next few hours. A weakening trend of
the activity is expected though toward mid-morning as the stronger
forcing begins to pull away from the region.

Regardless, given the favorable thermodynamic environment in the
short-term, expect convection to be capable of producing 2 to 3
inch/hour rainfall rates with the stronger cells. The relatively
slow cell-motions with these rates may result in some rainfall
totals of as much as 3 to 5 inches over the next few hours.

Given the moist antecedent conditions from heavy rainfall over the
last week, these rains early this morning may result in at least
some isolated instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!4ximSFRrmEAuB_A4G4IgZzGaYrG-Eu-jfJBRRUh06_7_-MgmK14j-Gi4Bu7nWebUMXB9=
f-k5HB1RHSVOOBnGD_RjP_k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30058219 29658189 29328218 29228282 29388336=20
            29668353 29998330=20

=3D =3D =3D
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