Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1172
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 06:29:09

ACUS11 KWNS 200629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200628=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-200830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1172
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...seastern Montana...far northwest North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342...343...

Valid 200628Z - 200830Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 342, 343
continues.

SUMMARY...A few storms may produce hail through watch expiration and
perhaps an hour or two beyond, from eastern Montana into far
northwest North Dakota.

DISCUSSION...Training cells persist over eastern MT, behind the
surface cold front and with modest elevated MUCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. The presence of sufficient deep-layer shear and lift behind
the front are aiding storm longevity currently. However, the
cool/stable air will continue to deepen as it slides east under the
existing storms, eroding instability. Given neutral heights
tendencies aloft and increasing CIN east of the front, this should
eventually shut off storm inflow, with a sudden end to the hail
threat. Until then, portions of the watch may be extended in time to
account for the near-term hail potential.

...Jewell.. 06/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!41kIQ-tzo89EoQS6uFgO_vNUrZSWbuNWhL-tdvxfndmHGvGav6xGTmfc86CO5fBSbu1iCHMxY=
OT8BfEAKkUEOY_qMHU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46500686 48280463 48640407 48700375 48640345 48400339
            48080354 46550536 46050599 45970636 46190678 46500686=20


=3D =3D =3D
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