Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1171
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 02:35:08

ACUS11 KWNS 200235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200234=20
MSZ000-LAZ000-200430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1171
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...Southeastern Louisiana

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341...

Valid 200234Z - 200430Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 341
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and a few damaging wind gusts will
persist into the late evening. Storms are expected to gradually
weaken by 12-1 AM CDT.

DISCUSSION...Storms continue to slowly move west/southwest into
southeastern Louisiana. The observed 00Z LIX sounding showed modest
mid-level lapse rates, but strong buoyancy. Moderate mid-level
northwesterly winds continue to be sampled by the KLIX VAD. 30-40
kts of effective shear likely promote additional supercell
structures as has been the case over the last couple of hours.
Though outflow continues to push westward away from the the
convection, particularly with southward extent, storms still have
access to strong buoyancy and will be capable of large hail and a
few damaging wind gusts. Additional storm development is at least
possible. Local radar and IR satellite have shown some tendency for
deepening convection along the surface boundary to the northwest of
the current activity. As before, the westward extent of the severe
risk remains uncertain. A low-end tornado threat is possible,
preferentially for stronger storms near the outflow boundary. With
time, additional MLCIN and stronger capping to the west (shown on
the 00Z observed LCH sounding) should help to gradually weaken
storms.

...Wendt.. 06/20/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5RyhApjCUzNQ1Mx1uhO3LxRZRn1JFI4FUNqa7GJJP_FdeFfyMYL0ItcGzeLidhJj733dGL-dT=
32NIH4GLSxXVsXsF0o$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LIX...

LAT...LON   31049092 31159043 30728942 29668876 29088898 28958953
            29169004 29909077 31049092=20


=3D =3D =3D
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