Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 01:07:23

AWUS01 KWNH 200107
FFGMPD
NDZ000-MTZ000-200705-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0532
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
906 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...eastern Montana, western North Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200105Z - 200705Z

Summary...Gradually deepening convection should pose an isolated
flash flood risk across the discussion area tonight.

Discussion...Recent satellite/radar mosaic imagery indicates
deepening/strengthening convection in a couple areas - 1) across
north-central Montana from 60 NW GGW to 20 E LWT and 2) about
20-40 S MLS.  These storms were in a favorable environment for
training, with movement generally parallel to deep/strong
southwesterly flow aloft and a collocated instability axis of
500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE extending from north-central Wyoming
northeastward across much of eastern Montana.  Though movement of
cells has been relatively quick (around 35-45 knots), training of
cells has fostered occasional rain rates approaching 1 inch/hr,
which has approached 1-2 inch FFG thresholds across the area
(locally lower).

The ongoing regime supporting flash flood potential should change
relatively little over the next 4-6 hours.  Although eventual
low-level stabilization should occur due to nocturnal boundary
layer cooling, subtle mid-level waves embedded within the deep
southwesterly flow aloft should act to maintain at least isolated
to scattered convection through the night (developing from
southwest to northeast) with continued potential for training.=20
Isolated flash flood potential exists in this regime.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9IaWs7i_KFOkLQ-KPic8oSvt40Zainwnlwa52AOlpmgABjuHJ84pwVG-j--DqoyCdlXE=
fre7kvFCaZCoXTW2OVIdMFk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   49000678 48980084 46510307 45360564 45800735=20
            47150826 48580773=20

=3D =3D =3D
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