Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Jun 20 2023 00:10:50

AWUS01 KWNH 200010
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-200608-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0531
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
810 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of the southern Appalachians

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200008Z - 200608Z

Summary...Scattered shower/thunderstorm activity is expected to
persist through the early overnight hours, with occasional peaks
in rain rates to 2 inches/hr.  Areas of flash flooding are
possible through the night.

Discussion...Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to
migrate northeastward at around 15-25 mph on the southeastern
periphery of a mid/upper low centered over Kentucky.  The
cells/clusters were located in a moderately buoyant, moist
environment characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1.5 inch PW
values, supporting occasionally heavy rain rates.  Additionally, a
recent uptick in convective coverage has been noted, which can
likely be attributed to a mid-level vorticity maximum approaching
the region from Middle Tennessee.  Convection was loosely
organized, but occasionally oriented favorably to southwesterly
flow aloft to promote occasional/localized training and spots of
rain rates to around 2 inches/hr (as recently observed near
Anderson, SC).=20

Models/observations suggest that these ongoing convective trends
will continue through the early overnight hours.  In fact,
HRRR/HREF/Nam3 all support an uptick in convective coverage an
intensity occurring across western North Carolina and vicinity
through 03Z.  These storms will occur over areas of FFGs
thresholds that are hovering around the 1-2 inch/hr range in most
areas (locally higher).  The expectation is that FFGs will likely
be exceeded on at least a localized basis through the night -
especially where more persistent and/or training convection can
materialize.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-ol-xiVNXd3KqdlVw5EJ2z3cORdXSceUkATVmgaKSD3AF8RFj-LxNXzQaY4PIbv7ISO9=
11thWHdqyOCpla1bCQHvyAs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...JKL...MRX...OHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37138136 37118010 36727971 35827974 35188031=20
            34478149 34158289 34518423 36218485 36618420=20
            36798274=20

=3D =3D =3D
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