Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 22:36:21

AWUS01 KWNH 192236
FFGMPD
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-200335-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0530
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
635 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Louisiana, southern/coastal
Mississippi

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192235Z - 200335Z

Summary...An intense mesoscale convective complex continues to
propagate west-southwestward, and may promote additional heavy
rainfall across portions of the discussion area through the early
evening.  Flash flooding is possible, but could become significant
if training cells become established over land/urban areas.

Discussion...An intense mesoscale convective complex continues to
migrate westward into an extremely unstable and moist airmass
currently.  The MCS has a history of producing several hours of
2-4 inch/hr rain rates along with extensive impacts across
southern portions of Mobile and Baldwin Counties in Alabama.  In
the short term, the bulk of the heavier rainfall has drifted
southward toward barrier islands just south of the
Mississippi/Alabama coastline.  It's current orientation is still
promoting areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates over coastal waters.

Meanwhile, an axis of deepening cumulus was located along the
north shore of Lake Pontchartrain, and newer convective cores were
developing just inland across southern Hancock County over the
past hour or so before merging into the aforementioned convective
complex.  Additional convective development is possible across
southeastern Louisiana as evidenced by the deepening cumulus
field, weak/subtle shortwaves near the region (based on objective
analyses and satellite), and recent HRRR runs.  Should these
storms materialize, the orientation and slow westward movement of
the MCS-related cold pool against westerly low-level flow and
northwesterly flow aloft will likely allow for training convection
and areas of 2-4 inch/hr rain rates as newer updrafts move
southeastward and merge into the ongoing complex. These rates
could cause locally significant flash flood issues at times.=20

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_PEbWWfhv6Go3my9UCGAT0cvxz8ItrIUPznPnvpvo4oWbGGOMHQ7DUkQzENc-JEdHddX=
M0PI1W4Aa1JGheQB9ybaXfo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   30909129 30889034 30838924 30578830 30148787=20
            29638786 29088860 29108983 29979131 30519155=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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