Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 21:43:18

AWUS01 KWNH 192143
FFGMPD
TXZ000-200340-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0529
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
542 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...portions of central Texas and the Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 192140Z - 200340Z

Summary...Scattered, slow-moving thunderstorms have developed
across the Hill Country over the past hour or so.  These storms
will pose a localized flash flood risk through around 03Z.

Discussion...Abundant solar insolation and weak/subtle height
falls has resulted in scattered, deep convective development
across areas near, east, and southeast of San Angelo.  The storms
are in a very steep-lapse-rate environment, with point forecast
soundings indicating 5000+ J/kg SBCAPE and over 1.5 inch PW values
that increase with eastward extent across the area.  Furthermore,
wind fields below 500mb are weak (generally less than 20 knots),
yielding slow and at times erratic storm motions generally less
than around 10 knots.  MRMS rain rates were eclipsing 2 inches/hr
across McCulloch and Menard Counties over the past few minutes,
and these values were exceeding the 2-2.5 inch/hr FFG thresholds
across the region.

Spotty heavy rainfall is expected to continue with this activity -
especially in central and eastern portions of the discussion area
where instability was extreme and PW values higher (1.5+ inch).=20
Lower PW values west of San Angelo should promote more high-based
activity with a lower risk of very heavy rain.  Storms should
slowly drift eastward, although the presence of weak low-level
shear suggests that cores should be outflow dominant with a
continued trend toward localized propagation/erratic movement.=20
Flash flooding will remain possible on at least an isolated basis
with this activity.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_S8oOYBzQzu__URj4PF5lm6AY03f91mR2EiCO5VflsTsrfxSAeFHk4ZJNeDegAoM2OdO=
sgGiXhFKG22IGkQ1Qp1CnL8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32549985 32489848 31669772 30289759 29499834=20
            29630010 30910105 31420168 32080115=20

=3D =3D =3D
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