Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 19:57:17 AWUS01 KWNH 191957 FFGMPD GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-200155- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0528 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Areas affected...central/southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 191955Z - 200155Z Summary...Scattered convection across central Alabama was continuing to strengthen, with locally heavy rainfall increasing in coverage. Flash flooding is possible across the discussion area through 01Z. Discussion...A band of convection was strengthening along a line from near AUO westward to around 45 S MEI over the past hour or so. These storms are in an environment characterized by strong buoyancy (2000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE - highest across southwestern portions of the discussion area) and 1.6 inch PW values, supporting efficient rainfall processes. Areas of 1 inch/hr rain rates have already materialized with this activity (per MRMS).=20 Furthermore, recent rainfall across the area (widespread 5+ inch totals over the past week) have led to wet soils, and relatively low FFG thresholds (in the 1-2 inch/hr range) are likely already being challenged by the heavier thunderstorm cores moving across the region. Continued thunderstorm activity is expected over the next 3-6 hours across the discussion area, although the southeastward progression of this activity is a bit in question. Widespread convective overturning from earlier storms has stabilized areas of southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, and while airmass recovery/destabilization was occurring in earnest across southwestern Alabama, the combination of widespread convective overturning near Mobile and lingering low to mid-70s F temps near Dothan, AL and Tallahassee, FL may act to hinder updraft strength and more robust convective potential. Nevertheless, flash flood potential will exist as the ongoing activity migrates eastward across the discusion area through 01Z or so. Cook ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7bkaUCgxx2y2TqXgzRZcWRFOl2GZaJcOOkEIz8_XzF9gzNi3TjJlY0VM-HcJSPUlHYmY= XGTuv_xW4Akqu99YlcfqSQw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33128483 32558379 31558367 30978453 31098730=20 31328837 31758854 32368818 32838666=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .