Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 19:33:50

AWUS01 KWNH 191933
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-192330-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0527
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...Southern Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191930Z - 192330Z

SUMMARY...Cluster of storms tracking north over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic Piedmont may cause flash flooding,
especially in urbanized settings.

DISCUSSION...Doppler Radar showed a line of thunderstorms tracking
NNE through the Carolinas and into southern VA. These storms are a
by-product of SE flow off the Carolina coast merging with SW flow
out of the Mid-South, resulting in 850mb convergence overhead. RAP
mesoanalysis depicted as much as 1.8" PWATs in southern Va and
near 2" PWATs in eastern SC. The 18Z HRRR over central NC, which
includes the Raleigh-Durham metro area, featured as much as
750-1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE as well as low-mid level RH values
averaging between 80-85%. HRRR area-averaged soundings measured
warm cloud layers from central NC to southern VA that range
between 10,000-12,000 feet deep, making the column sufficiently
deep to support efficient warm rainfall processes.

While the region has generally been drier than normal over the
last 1-2 weeks, the efficient rainfall rates that could approach
2"/hr (possibly higher in the more intense/training cells) over
areas that include more urbanized locations could contend with
flash flooding. Poor drainage areas and low lying spots are also
susceptible to possible flash flooding this afternoon.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!7GnEO8m6WPJKAUtXMJuUKDmVwGd-376Hkk6xIiINFu6v4M2wkFNySNEvBKGTr2Lq9oKY=
LZn2wXwLVXtFhHeDpu6UX8w$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...LWX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   37797837 37377813 36077811 34867847 34747931=20
            35237958 36087992 37167972 37747927=20

=3D =3D =3D
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