Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 19:20:45

AWUS01 KWNH 191920
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-192215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0526
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
320 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...southern Mississippi, southern Alabama

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191915Z - 192215Z

Summary...Very heavy rainfall associated with a mesoscale band
located just south of Mobile, Alabama will result in areas of
potentially significant flash flooding this afternoon.

Discussion...A small band of training convection has materialized
across southern Baldwin and Mobile Counties over the past couple
hours.  These storms are leveraging extreme instability (5000 J/kg
MLCAPE), abundant moisture (1.8 inch PW values), and appreciable
westerly low-level flow (30 knots etc.), supporting efficient
rainfall and areas of 2-3 inch/hr rain rates.  The rain rates have
been falling along the same axis for the past couple hours,
resulting in local 3-7 inch totals and areas of higher-end MRMS
Flash response, suggesting the presence of ongoing, locally
significant flash flooding.=20

Over the past hour, a lead mesocyclone materialized near Gulf
Shores and resulted in a southwestward-moving outflow boundary
very near the storms.  This boundary remains orthogonal to strong
low-level flow, with continued convergence and minimal upstream
convective inhibition resulting in continued, robust convective
development on the western flank of the convective band.=20
Additional deep convection was materializing across southeastern
Mississippi also.  The movement of this outflow is expected to
remain very slow, providing a focus for continued development and
heavy rainfall over at least the next 2-3 hours.

Multiple hours of 2-4 inch/hr rain rates are expected to produce
potentially significant impacts through 22Z.  There's also a
distinct possibility for the complex to continue to backbuild into
southeastern/coastal Mississippi during that timeframe.=20
Additional rainfall totals of 3-7 inches (locally higher) are
expected.

Cook

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-aSK-RWmLp3CRrPsVGVk-gY4YKTTczKl0R-oXZHvYHKaBoGJMxK-inhNyanwjfUJk9zX=
XJKUxXJa0BzAhDiD-Kkxej8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31038880 30928784 30438730 30108719 29938775=20
            29958893 30318969 30638978 31008962=20

=3D =3D =3D
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