Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1165 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 18:36:02 ACUS11 KWNS 191835 SWOMCD SPC MCD 191835=20 ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-192030- Mesoscale Discussion 1165 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023 Areas affected...parts of southern Alabama....southeastern Mississippi and adjacent portions of southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20 Valid 191835Z - 192030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Additional strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible through the remainder of the afternoon, with perhaps at least some increase in coverage. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a severe weather watch. DISCUSSION...In the wake of a remnant MCV migrating into southeastern Georgia coastal areas, the Rapid Refresh suggests that modest (30+ kt) west-southwesterly flow around 850 mb will gradually weaken across the southeastern Louisiana into southern Alabama/Florida Panhandle vicinity through late afternoon. However, seasonably strong (30-40 kt) northwesterly flow lingers in the 700-500 mb layer across this region, on the southwesterly periphery of a broad mid-level low centered over the Ohio Valley. Beneath this regime, a seasonably moist boundary-layer is becoming characterized by large mixed-layer CAPE (2000-4000 J/kg) in the the presence of modestly steep lapse rates. This is focused along and south of a weak front/zone of strengthening differential surface heating, south of I-20 across Mississippi through the Meridian MS/Montgomery AL vicinities, and west/northwest of a remnant outflow boundary near the Florida Panhandle Gulf Coast. Thunderstorm initiation is already well underway along the boundary near the Montgomery area, with scattered additional new thunderstorm development perhaps beginning to initiate west-southwestward into Mississippi, and perhaps near the sea-breeze/outflow boundary across southern Mississippi into southeastern Louisiana. As a weak short wave perturbation (evident in water vapor imagery digging across the lower Mississippi Valley) continues southeastward this afternoon, this may provide support for further development and/or upscale growth. Isolated supercell structures are possible initially, posing a risk for large hail and some continuing risk for a tornado (mainly near coastal area), before strong wind gusts become the more prominent potential hazard later this afternoon. ...Kerr/Hart.. 06/19/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4N-T86fm6vSAfwVViXqrEZV5JCWdsu_TN2HZqQNOBwxvLBPGj8vIKyL1YstU5NxtFmDBVqtUQ= F9744Iw_tUbKM3ygUQ$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 32128940 32168823 32498681 31328608 31028790 30458831 29708715 29568823 29828990 30598975 31218942 32128940=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .