Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 18:14:16

AWUS01 KWNH 191814
FFGMPD
FLZ000-192200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0525
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
213 PM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 191810Z - 192200Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms over the Miami metro area may produce
>2"/hr rainfall rates and produce flash flooding in urbanized
areas.

DISCUSSION...KAMX Doppler Radar and GOES-16 satellite all depict
blossoming thunderstorms stretching from Homestead and the Upper
Keys to Miami. There are also signs of developing thunderstorm
activity west of Miami. VAD wind profiler from KAMX shows mean
wind speeds are 10 knots and out of the NW. The VAD wind profiler
also depicted increasing SRH values in the 0-3km layer that were
approaching 100 m2/s2. RAP mesoanalysis showed PWATs around 2" and
MLCAPE of 3,000 J/kg would be supportive of >2"/hr rainfall rates
over a densely populated area that contains a greater
concentration of hydrophobic surfaces. RAP forecast soundings in
Miami showed warm cloud layers as deep as 13,000' this afternoon.
The lack of vertical wind shear should keep thunderstorm activity
more pulse-like in nature and additional storms likely sparked by
outflow boundaries or the sea breeze moving inland. That said, the
presence of weak, yet supportive, 0-3km SRH could allow for storms
to be a little more organized than typical pulse storms. Storms
may stick around the Miami metro and potentially as far north as
its northern suburbs for a couple hours. Flash flooding is
possible, especially in urbanized settings that feature the
greatest concentration of hydrophobic surfaces.

Mullinax

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8kKBVQXGC4b92aM5w92vrIKOYDroC3RL-bh6n0A8vzNH9xuCEhw22LIo28CUlKlCQ7oO=
6_rnx_YiCQ3CT922sykDaW4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   26188037 26158009 25608015 25348033 25268043=20
            25328057 25598060 25998063=20

=3D =3D =3D
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