Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 08:35:29

ACUS48 KWNS 190835
SWOD48
SPC AC 190833

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Periods of moderate west to northwest mid/upper flow are forecast
across portions of the central/southern Plains through at least Day
5/Fri. An upper ridge is forecast to be centered over the High
Plains during this time, with subtle shortwave impulses ejecting
across the Rockies from the western upper trough. A seasonally moist
and unstable airmass beneath the aforementioned northwest flow will
foster some severe potential across the High Plains vicinity through
Day 5/Fri. Confidence in where at least 15 percent coverage of
severe may be located is uncertain (anywhere from the western
Dakotas into western KS), and will likely be influenced by periods
of thunderstorm activity in the days prior to Days 4-5/Thu-Fri. This
uncertainty in coverage/location will preclude severe area
delineation at this time, but probabilities may become necessary in
subsequent outlooks.

By Day 6/Sat, an upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies is
forecast to eject eastward toward the Great Lakes through Day 8/Mon.
This overall pattern will support some severe risk from the northern
Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley vicinity during the second half
of the forecast period. However, forecast guidance (deterministic
and ensembles) show quite a bit of spread, mostly in the timing of
the ejecting wave and associated surface features. Introducing
severe areas at this time could lead to very large placement errors
temporally and spatially. Trends will be monitored and severe
probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks.

...Leitman.. 06/19/2023

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