Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Jun 19 2023 08:17:39

AWUS01 KWNH 190817
FFGMPD
FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-191315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0522
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023

Areas affected...Central MS...Southern AL...Western FL Panhandle

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 190815Z - 191315Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of locally training showers and thunderstorms
will continue this morning. Additional areas of flash flooding
will be possible.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows multiple clusters of
well-organized showers and thunderstorms oriented across areas of
central MS southeastward into portions of west-central to
southwest AL. The convection which has been generally oriented in
a training fashion over the last few hours has been focusing along
and just northeast of a quasi-stationary front and is being
sustained by the transport of a very moist and unstable airmass
into the boundary with aid from a west-southwest low-level jet of
30 to 40+ kts.

In fact, the latest RAP analysis shows MLCAPE values still running
as high as 2500 to 3500 J/kg across central MS down through
southwest AL, and this energy will continue to advect into the
ongoing convection which coupled with the persistence of as much
as 40 to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear should continue to yield
strong and sustainable updrafts in the short-term.

PWs across the region are on the order of 1.75 to 2 inches and the
environment over the next few hours will continue to favor
convection with locally extreme rainfall rates capable of reaching
2 to 3 inches/hour.

The HRRR guidance supports the ongoing convection continuing to
drop southeastward in close proximity to the front and this will
gradually increase the threat of heavy rainfall across areas of
southern AL and its possible that eventually some of this activity
will get down into the western FL Panhandle by mid-morning.

Additional rainfall amounts of as much as 3 to 4 inches with
isolated heavier amounts will be possible from these clusters of
convection that will capable of locally training over the same
area. Expect additional areas of flash flooding to be possible.

Orrison

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9FQMGsq9d5OnkUpi9oBGtTUk5MAPnjtoLBcnXbV5gtGEfljB9swpKqPvNle4EBiLJLut=
V6QdmU7kXSBdB62mNAMb8qM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32698960 32678908 32478828 32158737 31908675=20
            31508602 30948595 30688648 30918784 31558924=20
            32038972 32508990=20

=3D =3D =3D
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